Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal

• Gričar, Sergej; Bojnec, Štefan & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2026). I(2) Cointegration in Macroeconometric Modelling: Tourism Price and Inflation Dynamics. Econometrics. 14(1), p. 2–2. doi: 10.3390/econometrics14010002. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This study enhances macroeconometric modelling by utilising an I(2) cointegration framework to analyse the dynamic link between tourism prices and inflation in Slovenia and the Eurozone. Using monthly data from 2000 to 2017, we estimate cointegrated VAR models that capture long-run equilibria, short-run adjustments, and persistent deviations inherent in I(2) processes. The results reveal strong spillover effects from Slovenian tourism and input prices to Eurozone inflation and hospitality prices in the short run, while Eurozone-wide shocks dominate the long-run dynamics. By explicitly accounting for nonstationarity, structural breaks, and seasonal patterns, the I(2) model provides a more reliable framework than traditional I(1)-based approaches, which are often prone to misspecification when higher-order integration and persistent deviations are ignored. The findings contribute to macroeconometric theory by demonstrating the value of I(2) cointegration in modelling complex price systems and offer policy insights into inflation management and competitiveness in tourism-dependent economies.

• Leick, Birgit; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen & Eklund, Mehtap Aldogan (2024). Complement or competition? Airbnb-based tourism and local housing markets in four Norwegian cities, Research Handbook on Tourism, Complexity and Uncertainty. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781802203479. p. 190–207. doi: 10.4337/9781802203486.00026. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Airbnb listings can stand in competition with traditional rental markets in dynamically growing local markets, which suggests a competitive, rather than complementary relationship between Airbnb listings and local housing markets. The present chapter explores how the Airbnb-housing-market relationship develops over time in urban contexts, considering Airbnb-based tourism and ownership-based and rental-based housing markets. We investigate the long-term spillover effects between these partial markets at local level with empirical data that cover the four largest Norwegian cities, Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim, and Stavanger, all of which have a growing population, significant tourism activities, and a dynamic housing market. Our findings suggest no indication of a short-term spillover effect from Airbnb-based tourism on local housing markets, both those based upon ownership of housing space and rental markets in the cities for the period studied (with the exception of Trondheim). This points to a rather complementary relationship of Airbnb-based tourism and local housing markets in the context of these Norwegian cities. However, there might exist long-term effects between the traditional rental market and Airbnb accommodation in some of the cities, which could have positive or negative effects for local housing markets. Keywords: Airbnb-based tourism, local housing markets, competitive relationship, spillover effects, institutional factors.

• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2023). Evaluating DSGE Models: From Calibration to Cointegration. In Sloboda, Brian (Eds.), Econometrics - Recent Advances and Applications. IntechOpen. ISSN 9781803565255. doi: 10.5772/intechopen.111677. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2023). Long run non-linearity in CO2 emissions: the I(2) cointegration model and the environmental Kuznets curve. Empirica. ISSN 0340-8744. 50, p. 899–931. doi: 10.1007/s10663-023-09587-8. Full text in Research Archive
• Anundsen, André Kallåk; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen; Larsen, Erling Røed & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2022). Behavioral changes in the housing market before and after the Covid-19 lockdown. Journal of Housing Economics. ISSN 1051-1377. 59. doi: 10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101907. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We exploit unique Norwegian day-by-day transaction and hour-by-hour bidding logs data in order to examine how market participants reacted to the spreading news of Covid-19 in early March 2020, the lockdown on March 12, and the re-opening on April 20. We observe changes on the date of the lockdown in transaction volumes, sell-prediction spreads, exploitative bidding behavior, and seller confidence. However, when we compare observed price developments with our estimated counter-factual price developments, we find that about half of the total fall in prices had already occurred before the lockdown was implemented. The reopening completely reverses the lockdown effect on prices. We show that voluntary behavioral changes, as well as lockdown and re-opening effects, are visible in various measures of social mobility, and that changes in daily news sentiment correlate with the abnormal price movements during this period.

• Leick, Birgit; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen; Eklund, Mehtap & Vinogradov, Evgueni (2021). Exploring the relationship between Airbnb and traditional accommodation for regional variations of tourism markets. Tourism Economics. ISSN 1354-8166. 28(5), p. 1258–1279. doi: 10.1177/1354816621990173. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The relationship between Airbnb-based and traditional accommodation is mainly documented for key tourist destinations with a large tourism sector, while there is almost no evidence on this for other destinations. This article focuses on regional variations in the relationship between Airbnb-based and traditional accommodation across primary and secondary tourist destinations in Norway. Through an exploratory cluster analysis and a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model with forecast error decomposition of shocks (unobserved effects), it finds evidence of spillovers from Airbnb-based accommodation to traditional accommodation in secondary destinations. The demand for traditional accommodation is positively affected by Airbnb demand in the long run. Interestingly, a smaller effect is found with the supply-side of regional tourism markets in the Norwegian secondary tourist destinations. The growth of Airbnb may, thus, spur growth in the general tourism sector in such less frequented destinations.

• Larsen, Erling Røed; Anundsen, André Kallåk; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2020). Behavioral changes and policy effects during Covid-19: Evidence from day-by-day sales and bid-by-bid auction logs in the housing market, (with André K. Anundsen, Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal, and Leif Anders Thorsrud. Housing Lab Working Paper Series 2020-3. Housing Lab Working Paper Series. ISSN 2703-786X. 2020(3). Full text in Research Archive
• Leick, Birgit; Schewe, Theo & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2020). Tourism development and border asymmetries: An exploratory analysis of market-driven cross-border shopping tourism. Tourism Planning & Development. ISSN 2156-8316. 18(6), p. 673–698. doi: 10.1080/21568316.2020.1837230. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper explores whether shopping tourism in the context of cross-border regions may trigger more viable, and long-term, tourism despite persistent border asymmetries (e.g., price and tax differences) which are typically key to luring tourists to short-term shopping visits. While tourism development is often an explicit goal of cross-border policy initiatives, this paper is devoted to the market-driven processes that might drive tourism beyond short-term shopping in borderlands. Based upon a case study from the Norwegian-Swedish border region of Østfold-Fyrbodal, it finds that asymmetric cross-border shopping tourism supports the development of a diversified tourism sector with a variety of tourist attractions and services organised around shopping, longer overnight stays and second-home tourism. Despite persistent border asymmetries, market processes may balance off the short-term shopping visits towards supporting long-term tourism, which provides economic value to the cross-border region.

• Leick, Birgit; Eklund, Mehtap & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2020). Digital entrepreneurs in the sharing economy: A case study on Airbnb and regional economic development in Norway. In Strømmen-Bakhtiar, Abbas & Vinogradov, Evgueni (Ed.), The impact of the sharing economy on business and society : digital transformation and the rise of platform businesses. Routledge. ISSN 9780367264284. p. 69–88. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Driven by a rising awareness for sustainability on the level of society, the sharing economy is increasingly considered both as an element of the modern economy and innovation that is based on new technologies, new business models, and new ways of consumer-producer interaction. It offers abundant and prominent opportunities for entrepreneurship. In this chapter, we describe the sharing economy as a distinct type of digital entrepreneurship and give first insights into the unexplored topic of its impact on regional economic development.. Using Airbnb rental data for the tourist destination of Østfold, a peripheral region of southeastern Norway, we describe this type of digital entrepreneurship in the sharing economy as an alternative to traditional accommodation and link its growth to regional employment or unemployment. We present descriptive statistics and an empirical analysis and find that digital entrepreneurs associated with Airbnb are influenced by the prevalence of “traditional” accommodation and driven by unemployment in the region. We have also found an indication that these digital entrepreneurs in the region are opportunity driven rather than necessity. With this finding, we provide first ideas about this unexplored research avenue and evoke follow-up research questions.

• Vinogradov, Evgueni; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen & Leick, Birgit (2020). An agent-based modelling approach to housing market regulations and Airbnb-induced tourism. Tourism Management. ISSN 0261-5177. 77. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2019.104004. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Airbnb has shown constant growth and it provides income and taxes to tourist destinations. However, the prevalence of a substantial number of Airbnb providers in tourist destinations may lead to bottlenecks in rental housing markets. Regional planners and policy-makers across the world are therefore imposing restrictions to regulate this hitherto unregulated business model. The present paper sheds light on the link between housing-market regulation and the growth of Airbnb, based upon Norwegian Airbnb listings and agent-based modelling. The simulation results suggest that Airbnb's current growth will not simply flatten out when the supply matches the demand, but will be followed by a series of sudden crises and subsequent quick recoveries. These instabilities will put stress on local rental markets and threaten both the local tourism industry and rental housing markets. Moderate taxation may contribute to a more even distribution of Airbnb listings in Norway, notably across the urban space.

• Borgersen, Trond Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2019). Igangsetting og boligprisvekst. Er effekten symmetrisk mellom boligmarkedssegmenter? Praktisk Økonomi & Finans. ISSN 1501-0074. 35(2), p. 132–149. doi: 10.18261/issn.1504-2871-2019-02-06. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgersen, Trond Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2018). Commercial Real Estate at the ZLB: Investment Demand and CAPM-WACC Invariance. Nordic Journal of Surveying and Real Estate Research. ISSN 1459-5877. 13(1), p. 32–53. doi: 10.30672/njsr.68989. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper analyzes the implications of a low interest rate environment (the zero lower bound – ZLB) for the demand for commercial real estate. Investment demand is conventionally assessed by return and risk adjusted return, as given by net present value (NPV) and the Sharpe-ratio. The main question of the paper is whether there is any asymmetry between different evaluation models for the discount rate across different levels of the interest rate. First, we apply a conventional net-present value (NPV) approach, where the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) are used for evaluation. Considering the invariance level of systemic risk, we find WACC to be an alternative to CAPM for offensive and defensive investments when interest rates are close to historical averages. However, at the ZLB, WACC is only an alternative for investments if they carry the same risk as the market such that beta values are close to one. Second, we simulate our models using US data to see how the WACC shortcut performs across time, and especially at the ZLB, in this economy. We see differences between the period preceding the financial crisis and the period after 2010, even though the Federal Funds rate is close to zero in both periods. We relate this to the difference in systemic risk between the two periods, and show how results in the latter period is quite similar across evaluation models.

• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2017). A new Keynesian framework and wage and price dynamics in the USA. Empirical Economics. ISSN 0377-7332. p. 1–19. doi: 10.1007/s00181-017-1320-8. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper investigates theoretical implications from a new Keynesian model focusing on the labor market, by imposing them as testable restrictions in an estimated vector error correction model on US data from 1982Q3 to 2016Q1. By this, I conduct an important, but rarely addressed, step in assessing the empirical relevance of a theoretical new Keynesian model. Another advantage of this approach is that the cycle and trend components of the data are separated when imposing the testable restrictions, such that there is no need to filter the data series prior to estimation. The results show that most of the properties pertaining to the theoretical model cannot be rejected when imposed as restrictions. The new Keynesian model on the labor market is thus found to be empirically relevant. Furthermore, the estimated econometric model explains a large degree of the wage and price dynamics in the USA, such that the paper also provides an estimated macroeconometric model.

• Borgersen, Trond Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2017). Risikojustert meravkastning i boligmarkedet. Praktisk Økonomi & Finans. ISSN 1501-0074. 33(1), p. 113–135. doi: 10.18261/issn.1504-2871-2017-01-09. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  I hele landet har boligprisene steget betydelig siden tidlig på 90-tallet. Til tross for sterk boligprisvekst, vokser prisene i ulike segmenter forskjellig. Det er også geografiske variasjoner i prisveksten. Denne artikkelen ser nærmere på sammenhengen mellom prisvekst og prisrisiko i ulike regioner og segmenter av boligmarkedet der vi belyser meravkastningen for ulike boliginvesteringer ved hjelp av to finansteoretiske indikatorer som tilpasses boligmarkedet: Sharpe-raten som skalerer meravkastning med samlet prisrisiko, og Treynorraten som skalerer med systematisk risiko.

• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2013). A DSGE model with housing in the cointegrated VAR framework. Empirical Economics. ISSN 0377-7332. 47(3), p. 853–880. doi: 10.1007/s00181-013-0765-7. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In order to empirically investigate the assumptions underlying a theoretical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the long-run and the short-run structure of the model may be imposed in the framework given by a cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) model. This allows testing restrictions pertaining to the model without filtering the data before estimating the model. A DSGE model which includes financial markets is tested in the CVAR framework, and restrictions from the theoretical model are mainly rejected. Comparing impulse response functions from the theoretical model and the restricted empirical model also show that the results from the theoretical model are not found in the data. This suggests that the theoretical model needs to be extended or modified before it can match the empirical observations.

• Borgersen, Trond Arne; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen & Thøgersen, Joachim (2013). Egenkapitalkrav og finansiell risiko i husholdningenes boliginvesteringer. Magma forskning og viten. ISSN 1500-0788. p. 22–28. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2013). Testing for rational bubbles in the US housing market. Journal of macroeconomics. ISSN 0164-0704. 38, p. 369–381. doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.08.021. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The presence of a bubble in the US housing market prior to the 2007 subprime mortgage financial crisis is investigated. This is done by looking into the relationship between house prices and rental prices, known as the price–rent ratio, which is an important measure of a potential deviation between house prices and its fundamental value. Additionally, the interest rate is taken into account since it is an important factor in determining demand for housing mortgages and thereby influencing house prices, and explosive behavior of house prices is considered. These relationships are investigated through a theoretical and econometrical framework. The empirical evidence suggests that there was a bubble in the housing market prior to the financial crisis, even when controlling for the decreasing interest rate and the fundamental information given by the rental price in the period. Explosiveness was the main source of the price increase, such that a bubble was present in the housing market after correcting for other fundamental factors. The econometric procedures used in the analysis may therefore be relevant for monitoring the housing market.

• Borgersen, Trond Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2012). Pris- og belåningsgevinster i husholdningenes boligformue. Praktisk Økonomi & Finans. ISSN 1501-0074. 29(2), p. 85–91. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgersen, Trond Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2012). Finansielle akseleratorer i boligmarkedet : en kortsiktstilnærming med utgangspunkt i boliginvesteringers belåningsgrad og belåningsgevinst. Beta – Scandinavian Journal of Business Research. ISSN 0801-3322. 26(2), p. 147–159. Full text in Research Archive

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• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2024). Applied Statistics and Econometrics: Basic Topics and Tools with Gretl and R. Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 9783031531415. 264 p. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2023). Anvendt statistikk og økonometri. Grunnleggende temaer og anvendelser i Gretl og R. Universitetsforlaget. ISBN 9788215068312. 296 p. Full text in Research Archive

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• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2025). Climate risks and housing markets. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2025). Nonperformance Factors in Wind and Brass Band Competitions. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2025). Climate risks and the housing market. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2025). Nonperformance Factors in Wind and Brass Band Competitions. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2024). Investigating international carbon leakage in the GVAR model. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2024). Natural disasters, insurance claims and regional housing markets. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2024). Homeownership Share and Housing Market Stability. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2024). Homeownership Share and Housing Market Stability. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2024). Homeownership Share and Housing Market Stability. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2024). Investigating international spillovers for CO2 emissions in the GVAR model. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2024). Natural disasters, insurance claims and regional housing markets. Full text in Research Archive
• Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, André Kallåk; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen & Larsen, Erling Røed (2023). Housing bubble scars. Housing Lab Working Paper Series. ISSN 2703-786X. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2023). Investigating international spillovers for CO2 emissions in the GVAR model. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2023). Investigating international spillovers for CO2 emissions in the GVAR model. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2023). Natural disasters, insurance claims, and regional housing markets. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2023). Natural disasters, extreme weather and the housing market: An analysis using Norwegian insurance claims data. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2022). Natural disasters, extreme weather and the housing market. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2022). Natural disasters, extreme weather and the housing market: An analysis using Norwegian insurance claims data. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2022). Natural disasters, extreme weather and the housing market: An analysis using Norwegian insurance claims data. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2022). Social Housing Policy in Rental-Intensive and Owner-Intensive tenure structures: Contributions to housing market stability. Full text in Research Archive
• Leick, Birgit; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen; Eklund, Mehtap & Vinogradov, Evgueni (2021). The growth of Airbnb can support tourism development in remote tourist destinations. Full text in Research Archive
• Leick, Birgit; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen; Eklund, Mehtap & Vinogradov, Evgueni (2021). Airbnbs vekst kan støtte utviklingen av turismen på bygda. Forskersonen.no. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2021). Ifølge «Bobleindeksen» er boligmarkedet overpriset: -Folk er optimistiske. [Journal]. Fredriksstad Blad. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2020). Natural disasters and house prices. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2020). Speculative Bubbles in US Regional Housing Markets. Full text in Research Archive
• Leick, Birgit; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen; Eklund, Mehtap Aldogan & Vinogradov, Evgueni (2020). On the link between Airbnb-based Accommodation and Tourism Development in Secondary Tourist Destinations: An Exploratory Analysis. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  There is a knowledge gap on the prevalence of Airbnb and its impact on tourism development in less developed tourist regions, so-called secondary tourist destinations. By exploring this gap, the present paper contributes with a two-step exploratory study: First, it analyses the regional case of Østfold, a Norwegian secondary tourist destination, which is, second, followed by a cross-country comparison. The paper specifically analyses the direction and strength of the relationship between traditional accommodation and Airbnb-based tourism, which is a hitherto understudied topic notably for less frequented tourist destinations. Keywords: Sharing economy, secondary tourist destinations , tourism development, regional economic development

• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2020). Natural disasters and the housing market: Build back better? Full text in Research Archive
• Leick, Birgit; Eklund, Mehtap & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2020). Digital entrepreneurship, sharing economy and regional development. Full text in Research Archive
• Leick, Birgit; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen; Eklund, Mehtap & Vinogradov, Evgueni (2020). Airbnb and tourism development in secondary tourist destinations: An exploratory study. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  There is a knowledge gap on the prevalence of Airbnb and its impact on tourism development in less developed tourist regions, so-called secondary tourist destinations. By exploring this gap, the present paper contributes with a two-step exploratory study: First, it analyses the regional case of Østfold, a Norwegian secondary tourist destination, which is, second, followed by a cross-country comparison. The paper specifically analyses the direction and strength of the relationship between traditional accommodation and Airbnb-based tourism, which is a hitherto understudied topic notably for less frequented tourist destinations. Keywords: Sharing economy, secondary tourist destinations, tourism development, regional economic development

• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2019). Investigating international spillovers for CO2 emissions in the GVAR model. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgersen, Trond Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2019). Fortsatt boligprisvekst i Sarpsborg - og andelen husholdninger med høy gjeldsbelastning vokser. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgersen, Trond Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2019). Halden på leietoppen i Østfold. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2019). Speculative Bubbles in Regional Housing Markets. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2019). Investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve for the US through the I(2) Cointegration Model. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2019). Debt Deciles: Derail and Demise? Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2019). The Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 emissions in the US and the I(2) cointegration model. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgersen, Trond Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2019). Østfoldingen - Han er utenfor han! Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2018). Investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve for the US through the I(2) Cointegration Model. Full text in Research Archive
• Vinogradov, Evgueni; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen & Leick, Birgit (2018). Modelling development of online peer-to-peer accommodation services: an agent-based approach. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2018). Investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve for the US through the I(2) Cointegration Model. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2018). Investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve for the US through the I(2) Cointegration Model. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2018). Was there a nationwide house price bubble in the US in the 2000s? Testing for rational bubbles in US metro areas. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2018). Was there a nationwide house price bubble in the US in the 2000s? Testing for rational bubbles in US metro areas. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgersen, Trond-Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2017). Hva er det med Sarpsborg? p. 8–9. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgersen, Trond-Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2017). Fremdeles for lav boligbygging. p. 8–9. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen; Wu, Hong & Tufte, Geir Conrad (2017). Om å bygge fremtiden. p. 14–15. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2017). Was there a nationwide house price bubble in the US in the 2000s? Testing for rational bubbles in US metro areas. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2017). The Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive (CVAR) Model – A Short Introduction. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2017). The CVAR model and estimation of DSGE models. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgersen, Trond Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2016). Høy boligprisvekst i Fredrikstad: Tilflytting og et todelt boligmarked. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgersen, Trond Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2015). Svakere boligprisvekst og høyere boligprisrisiko i Fredrikstad enn i Sarpsborg. Demokraten. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgersen, Trond Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2015). Høy prisvekst og lav nybyggingstakt. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2015). A New Keynesian Framework and Wage and Price Dynamics in the US. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2014). A New Keynesian Framework and Wage and Price Dynamics in the US. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgersen, Trond Arne; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen & Thøgersen, Joachim (2013). Belåningsgrad, egenkapitalkrav og finansieringsrisiko ved kjøp av bolig. Eiendomsmegleren. ISSN 0803-7345. p. 20–22. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2013). A New Keynesian Framework and Wage and Price Dynamics in the US. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2012). Testing for Rational Bubbles in the US Housing Market. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2012). A DSGE Model with Housing in the Cointegrated VAR Framework. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2012). A DSGE Model with Housing in the Cointegrated VAR Framework. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2012). A DSGE Model with Housing in the Cointegrated VAR Framework. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2012). A DSGE model with housing in the cointegrated VAR framework. Working Paper Series at Department of Economics, NTNU. ISSN 1503-299X. doi: 10.1007/s00181-013-0765-7. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2025). Climate Risks and Housing Markets. OsloMet - storbyuniversitetet. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2022). Boligpriser og kvikkleireskred. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2021). Essays on the reformed Norwegian electricity retail market. Norges miljø- og biovitenskapelige universitet (NMBU). ISSN 9788257517373. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The thesis explores efficiency outcomes following the Norwegian electricity market reform introduced in the early 1990s. Specifically, the thesis investigates efficiency outcomes resulting from the incentive regulation of electricity network companies, the inhererent nature of household consumers and their attitudes to market participation, electricity price development in standard electricity contracts, and the potential for facilitating practices to increase collusive market behavior among retailers. The thesis consists of an extensive introductory chapter that comprises the context and background information to the four empirical studies, data, methods and a summary. Using rich data and sophisticated methods, the thesis brings new evidence to bear on the economics and psychology of household switching behavior of electricity retailers, development in electricity contract prices, and market vehavior among retailers.

• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2021). Macroprudential Policies and Housing Prices in Oslo The effect of loan-to-value and debt-to-income regulations on the Oslo housing market. OsloMet - storbyuniversitetet. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  As a result of the severe consequences of the financial crisis in 2008, together with a recent rise in housing prices and household debt, Norway has imposed several macroprudential policies to limit the buildup of financial imbalances. The effect of such policies is yet to be understood sufficiently. This thesis examines the effect of the macroprudential policies imposed in Norway. Specifically, we investigate how loan-to-value regulations and debt-toincome regulations have influenced the selling price of dwellings in Oslo. Using highresolution data on housing trans-actions in Oslo, we employ hedonic regression and regression discontinuity designs to uncover the effect of the regulations. We find that the loanto- value regulation caused the selling price of dwellings to fall three weeks before the implementation of the policy. However, the effect is short lived, as the price development continued upwards only three months after the implemen-tation. Further, we find that the debtto- income regulation had a slower effect on the housing prices, causing the price development to fall three months after the policy was implemented. Moreover, using supplemental time series regression, we find that the debt-to-income policy may have had a more long-term effect on the housing market than the loan-to-value policy.

• Borgersen, Trond Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2019). BOLIGMARKEDSUTVIKLINGEN I ØSTFOLD: EN ANALYSE AV REGIONALE BOLIGMARKEDER I ØSTFOLD SETT I LYS AV ARBEIDSMARKEDS- OG BEFOLKNINGSUTVIKLING. Høgskolen i Østfold. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2013). Testing Economic Theory Using the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model: New Keynesian Models and House Prices. Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet. ISSN 9788247148259. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This PhD project investigates a method for taking theoretical models, mainly New Keynesian models for business cycle analysis, to the data. The cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model is used as a statistical framework, which provides the possibility of testing aspects of theoretical New Keynesian models. Additionally, it may be used as an alternative method for estimating these models, contrary to what is mainly used. In particular, there is no need to alter the non-stationary macroeconomic variables prior to estimation and the theoretical steady state of the model may be tested as restrictions on the long-run relationships of the CVAR model. In chapter two and three, properties of theoretical New Keynesian models are tested in the CVAR model. Chapter two includes a New Keynesian model which explains price- and wage setting, while the New Keynesian model in chapter three includes the housing market. The theoretical model in chapter two is mostly in line with what is found in the data, while there is a gap between the theoretical model in chapter three and the empirical observations. Hence, the CVAR framework is found to be a valuable tool in testing properties of the theoretical models, and may be used in order to assess the empirical relevance of the model before using it for policy analysis.The final chapter finds evidence in favor of a bubble in the US housing market prior to the financial crisis starting in 2008, due to explosiveness in house prices using a theoretical model for the housing market. This may explain the deviations between the model and the empirical observations in chapter three. It also implies that the CVAR model can be used in order to monitor the housing market

• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2013). A New Keynesian Framework and Wage and Price Dynamics in the US. NTNU, Department of economics. Full text in Research Archive
• Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2012). Testing for rational bubbles in the housing market. Department of economics, NTNU. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgersen, Trond Arne & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen (2011). Pris- og belåningsgevinster i husholdningenes boligformue. Høgskolen i Østfold. ISSN 9788278253571. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Siden 1992 har prisutviklingen i det norske boligmarkedet gitt betydelige formuesgevinster for boligeierne. Ettersom boliginvesteringer ofte lånefinansieres inkluderer formuesgevinsten potensielt også en belåningsgevinst. Belåningsgevinsten påvirkes både av boliginvesteringenes finansieringsstruktur og av boligmarkedets meravkastning. Høy meravkastning kan igjen påvirke valg av finansieringsstruktur ved boligkjøp. Slik kan kombinasjonen av høy boligprisvekst og lave boliglånsrenter som norsk økonomi har vært karakterisert av de siste årene være en viktig årsak til observerte endringer i boliglånsmarkedet

• Karlsen, Bjørnar Kivedal & Bårdsen, Gunnar (2008). Estimering av en enkel ny-keynesiansk modell for norsk økonomi. NTNU,. Full text in Research Archive

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